Leading Off
●WI-Gov, WI-03: On Friday, Wisconsin Democratic Rep. Ron Kind announced that he will not run for governor next year and will instead seek re-election to the House. Kind frequently flirts with seeking statewide office but, like Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, never actually goes for it.
Kind's decision will likely be greeted with relief by House Democrats, since his 3rd District swung from 55-44 Obama to 49-45 Trump and could have been tough to defend without him. However, Democrats looking to take down GOP Gov. Scott Walker, who is likely to run for re-election in 2018, probably won't be so happy. Democrats consistently do well in Madison and Milwaukee, but having a candidate who can also carry areas like Kind's southwest Wisconsin seat could make all the difference between a statewide win and a statewide loss.
While Democrats would absolutely love to defeat Walker, it's far from clear who they'll run. Ex-state Sen. Tim Cullen recently said that he's likely to get in, but Cullen is a weak fundraiser who has pissed off plenty of Democrats over the years. (Walker once called him "pretty reasonable" in what he thought was a private conversation, which may be the kiss of death in a primary.) State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout is considering, and like Kind, she hails from a rural area that swung from Obama to Trump. But Vinehout won just 4 percent of the vote in the 2012 primary to face Walker in the recall election, so she may not have what it takes to run a tough race.
Joe Parisi, the executive of Madison's Dane County, didn't rule out a run for governor all the way back in May, but he doesn't appear to have said anything since then. Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ, who lost the 2014 attorney general race 52-45, has set up social media accounts ahead of an unnamed statewide bid. The Associated Press also says that Assemblyman Dana Wachs, who like Kind and Vinehout represents Eau Claire, is considering, but he doesn't seem to have said so publicly yet. It's possible that, now that Kind has made his plans clear, some of these people will make their own plans clear, and other names may come onto the radar as well.
Whoever steps up to challenge Walker, assuming he goes ahead and seeks a third term, won't have an easy time beating him. Despite his failed 2016 presidential bid, Walker is a tough campaigner, and he will have all the money he could possibly need. But polls last year showed Walker with a weak approval rating, and if the GOP suffers the midterm backlash the president's party usually suffers, the governor will probably feel it. It's very likely that national Democrats will target Walker, but it may be a while before the Democratic field takes form.
